Episode 67 — Formation of the Shadows and the Integrated Resort (Part 2)

Volg shrugged and began to speak in a flat, matter-of-fact tone.

"We have games where you guess if the dice roll is even or odd, betting on bone-sorting divinations, and the most interesting ones are the card games. Cards are particularly popular among the nobles in the Capital."

"Card games, huh? What kind of rules?"

"They use boards with numbers and illustrations on them. You compete over the strength of hand combinations, or try to get the total sum of numbers as close to a specific value as possible. ...Of course, in the end, it’s all rigged by the gamblers to clean out the customers' pockets."

"Rigged?"

"Yeah. Marking the tiles, weighted dice... every gambler I know made their living that way. That’s just how gambling dens work. ...Wait, don’t tell me you’re planning to do the same?"

Volg arched an eyebrow, looking at me as if testing his character.

I gave a dry laugh.

"It’s the opposite, Volg. The exact opposite. We won’t be doing any rigging at all."

"...Can a gambling house even turn a profit without cheating?"

"Forget turning a profit—in the long run, not cheating is actually far more lucrative."

I set down my cola and straightened my posture.

"Listen, Volg. There’s something in gambling called the 'Law of Large Numbers.'"

"...The Law of Large Numbers?"

Volg rolled the unfamiliar term around in his mouth.

"For example, Volg. Let’s say you have a single coin. Heads or tails. The probability is fifty-fifty. You follow me so far?"

"...A kid could follow that."

"Then, if I asked you to bet your entire fortune on a single toss, what would you do? If your luck is bad, you're bankrupt in an instant. For both the house and the player, it’s nothing but a gamble. ...But what do you think happens if you repeat that toss a hundred times, a thousand times, or ten thousand times?"

I lightly tapped the side of my cola glass.

"If you only toss it two or three times, sure, you might get heads every time. But the more you increase the number of attempts, the more the result converges toward exactly fifty-fifty. That is the Law of Large Numbers. It’s a mathematical principle where the massive gravity of 'total trials' converts chance into necessity."

The light of calculation flickered deep in Volg’s eyes.

"...And how does that lead to profit? If it’s fifty-fifty, you just break even."

"That’s the point. You mix a tiny bit of 'inequality' into the rules. For example: if it’s heads, the player wins; if it’s tails, the house wins. However, if the coin happens to land perfectly on its edge, the house wins then too. ...From the player's perspective, that’s a negligible difference. They won't even notice it in a single game."

I leaned in, locking eyes with Volg.

"But, when thousands of customers gather and the games are repeated tens of thousands of times, that 'negligible difference' is transformed by the Law of Large Numbers into an unshakeable wall of massive profit. It doesn't matter if an individual customer wins or loses. The more the trial count increases, the house's victory shifts from 'probability' to a 'certain future.'"

I heard Volg catch his breath.

"...Rigging is about manipulating luck. But what you’re talking about is..."

"Integrating luck itself into the gears of the system. The customers pay for the hope that 'luck might be on their side,' while we sit on a mathematical throne knowing that 'as long as the games keep going, we always win.' All we have to do is follow the rules of this world's logic."

"...You’re saying you can manufacture money with mathematics?"

"That’s exactly it. If rigging is exposed, it’s over. Trust vanishes and the customers stop coming. But if the 'legal house edge' is built into the rules from the start, there’s nothing to expose. ...The rules of the game themselves are the ultimate rig."

(In a world governed by the Law of Large Numbers, the house always wins. But people who are blinded by the gamble never notice that—or maybe they just don't want to notice.)

Silence.

Volg stared at me intently. The single eye visible through the gaps in his bangs was shining with the light of someone running complex equations.

"It won't just be a gambling house. We’ll serve food, offer drinks, and have shows. We'll build it in that space in the Old District. We’ll make it an integrated facility for enjoying the night. ...A place where merchants and travelers who visit Felsen can drop their money and have a good time before they leave. Let’s call this place a 'Casino.'"

"...You’re going to turn that worn-out street in the Old District into a place like that?"

"Exactly. And Volg, I’m entrusting the management of it all to you. As the Manager of the Tax-Free Zone, you’ll have an official public face. The Casino will be the flagship facility of that zone."

After a long silence, Volg let out a small chuckle.

"...You really are something else. Creating a system through math that makes a guaranteed profit while actually keeping the customers happy... You’re sharper than anyone I’ve ever worked for."

"I appreciate the compliment, but you guys are the ones who have to make it happen. My job ends here."

Gustav began writing on his parchment with a wry smile, as if to say, "The usual, then."

"...Master Zect. Such a place would surely shine at night, wouldn't it? Please leave the lighting design to me. Naturally, I shall ensure the light hits at the exact angle that makes me look most beautiful..."

"Yeah, yeah. I get it. I’ll leave it to you, Elishua."

Tama, on my lap, gave a slight flick of her ear.

"Meow. (...Looks like there’s nothing for me to do here.)"

I stroked Tama’s back as I gazed out the window at the sprawling forest. The bubbles in my cola were quietly popping inside the glass.

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